BJP Blueprint 2019 : Kashmir Pace-setter For Polarised Polls
BY
R.K.MISRA
An idea rarely gets
bigger than the brain cell it occupies, or so goes the saying.
And thus every
time polls near, the foxes develop a
pronounced interest in prolonging the lives of the poultry.
Two events on the national political canvass held
in close proximity provide a clear indicator of the Narendra Modi- led BJP
government’s strategy for the general elections 2019. While the first was the
promulgation of Governor’s rule in Jammu and Kashmir on June 20,the second was
the two day meeting in Ahmedabad,
Gujarat on June 25 to formulate it’s strategy for next year’s Lok Sabha
elections.
The meeting was attended
by BJP national chief Amit Shah, Union
ministers Purshottam Rupala and Mansukh
Mandavia , Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani, deputy chief minister Nitin
Patel ,BJP Gujarat in-charge Bhupendra Yadav two Rashtriya Swayamsevak
Sangh(RSS) leaders -Yashwant Chaudhary and Gujarat prant pracharak Chintan
Upadhyay- besides the state party chief Jitu Vaghani. A total of about three
dozen people attended the closed door conclave.
“The 2019 polls are no
normal elections. It is a fight for sovereignty of India. Keeping in view the
enemy states in the neighbourhood and global competition, it is imperative that
once again a government under Narendra Modi is formed”, said Vaghani.
Though the Ahmedabad
meeting was meant to kick-start next
year’s poll preparations in relation to Gujarat, it provided tell-tale indicators of the line of
campaigning. It is now amply clear that the poll discourse will be built around
the ‘sovereignty-in-peril- defend-with-all-your-might’ narrative that requires
Modi back in power.
Corroboratory evidence,
if any was required, is provided by the decision to break the alliance in Jammu
and Kashmir after having consorted with an ideological ‘enemy’ for good of
three years. The worsening condition in the valley had the BJP complicit in all
acts of omission and commission of the Mehbooba Mufti led Alliance government.The
baggage was obviously proving a drag not only in Jammu but also countrywide
where pulpit patriotism will form a forceful part of the poll narrative. And so
the break-up.
Inherent in such a
narrative is the premise that the ensuing parliamentary elections will be a
dirty, no-holds barred polls where polarization will be the fulcrum on which
the ruling party’s campaign will rest. Notwithstanding the United Nations report on human rights
violations in Kashmir( which has already been denied by the Indian army chief),
a tough stand by the security forces will be trumped up by an obliging
television media to show up Centre’s rule in the valley as the herculean
panacea that has a cure all affect-all to bolster the ruling party’s poll
prospects.
Modi’s politics and
even governance in Delhi , has for most
part, remained an extension of his forays in his home state. There are all
indications that the BJP will persist with the ‘Gujarat polarization model’
that it perfected and has used in successive
state elections with varying results.
If the 2002 elections in Gujarat that followed
the Godhra train carnage , was foisted
on ‘miyan Musharraf’ while targeting the minority community in the state and
earned the ‘hindu hriday samrat’, a landslide victory, a variation may be on
offer in the hope of a similar outcome.
Already, majoritarian
politics has been on full play with an
underlying hate campaign seeking
to tar the Kashmiri muslim in the rest of the country as ‘anti-India’ with the
social media as eloquent testimony to the organised effort. The same narrative
is expected to be widened for vote polarization with ‘gourmet’ add-ons and ‘ spicy’
Pakistan garnishings in the hope of a palate tickling poll serving.
If not this, then what?
For Modi, desperate times call for desperate measures. Even if one refrains
from passing judgement on his four years of rule, the most dedicated
saffronista will admit that his popularity is nowhere near 2014 when he assumed
power riding atop a crest of popular expectations.
The Prime Minister’s
home state ,Gujarat can be a revealing test case.The BJP bagged all 26 Lok Sabha
seats in 2014. It should thank it’s stars if it gets between 12 to 14 seats.
The entire political
landscape has undergone a sea-change.The state is beset with internal strife
with farmers, patels, dalits and even OBCs rising in protest .Restricted to less
than 100 seats in a 182 member Gujarat Assembly, the BJP does not have a single
legislator in 10 of the 33 districts of Gujarat and only one in another seven. The
party has lost major ground in Saurashtra region in the 2016 local self
-government elections.
Aware of the
shortcoming and with the national polls looming, the cash rich BJP is busy
making up the shortfall, the only way it has perfected, by destabilizing the
Congress ruled panchayats. The Congress has lost five district and 30 taluka
panchayats.”The BJP is blatant in it’s use of money power, government machinery
and bringing pressure on our members, some of them being paid over Rs two
crores each’, points out Amit Chavda,the state Congress chief adding that Amit
Shah has instructed the chief minister to ensure that the Congress hold in
taluka panchayats is reduced to less than half.
Be that as it may, if
coming events cast their shadows ahead, past events cannot fail to leave their impress
behind as well.
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