Myth & Reality Of Gujarat Elections 2017
BY R.K.MISRA
It’s bluster bagged and it’s bluff
called, the BJP fell back on sizzle to hide it’s blushes in Gujarat.
And for it, what a grandstanding did
Prime Minister Narendra Modi ensure, back home for the December 26 swearing-in ceremony.
Notwithstanding, one death and two hospitalizations in creating the grandeur, there
was virtually the entire union cabinet and eighteen Chief Ministers from BJP
ruled states, besides religious leaders of all hues and shades and a re-union of their old as well- margdarshak
mandal chief L.K.Advani, former chief ministers Keshubhai Patel, BJP veteran-turned
congressman-turned janvikalp leader Shankersinh Vaghela and last ousted Chief Minister Anandiben Patel, all of vintage
BJP stock.
All wax and no wick. No sooner was
Vijay Rupani sworn–in the sixteenth Chief Minister of Gujarat with Nitin Patel
as his deputy alongside eighteen ministers, began the slugfest over portfolios which continued for 48 hours until
the Prime Minister could find time after the triple talaq bill proceedings in
Parliament late on December 28 to clear the list .But more about that later.
A recap . The BJP won Gujarat on December
18 for a record of sorts and formed the
government for the sixth time through an anaemic victory in a keenly fought
election though it’s tally was down to less
than a hundred seats, the lowest margin for a single winning party in the state
since 1975.The Congress, on the other hand, made nationally rejuvenating gains-
it’s best showing in Gujarat since 1985- but fell short of power, primarily
because of it’s inability to break through the ruling party’s urban bastion.
The results, in any case, was a
distant cry from the BJP bluster of bagging 150 of the total 182 seats in the
Gujarat Assembly. Former congress Chief Minister Madhavsinh Solanki’s 1985
record of bagging 149 of the total 182 seats remains unmolested through the Modi
era and past this poll as well. For the BJP, the slide is palpable from 127
seats in 2002 to 99 in 2017. In the final tally, BJP bagged 99, the Congress
77, NCP1,Bharat Tribal Party 2 and independents accounting for three seats, two
of whom are supporting the Congress.
Though the BJP has got a clear majority for the fifth consecutive time,
the Congress did manage to give them the shivers. And therefore the need for an
illusion-building pomp and show swearing-in ceremony!
The gains against the last Assembly
elections notwithstanding, the Congress has nevertheless suffered a setback in
that it’s top leadership in the state has been wiped out. One of it’s tallest
leaders Shaktisinh Gohil lost from Mandvi in Kutch and so did Arjun
Modvadia(Porbandar),one time state party chief, Siddarth Patel, son of
former chief minister Chimanbhai Patel ,
Tushar Chaudhary, son of another former Congress chief minister and a former union minister himself. Unlike
the Congress, the top leadership of the
BJP was able to hold out. Chief minister
Vijay Rupani , deputy chief minister Nitin Patel, state BJP
chief Jitu Vaghani, education minister Bhupendrasinh Chudasama, former energy
minister in Anandiben Patel government Saurabh Patel, all won.
The situation was equally bad for the turncoat
politicians who had switched sides from the Congress to the BJP just before the
Rajya Sabha elections that saw Ahmed Patel, political advisor to Mrs Sonia
Gandhi scrape through by the skin of it’s teeth. Four of six who had got BJP
tickets lost in the elections. If Tejshree Patel lost from Viramgam so did
Mansinh Chauhan from Balasinor.Cooperative leader Ramsinh Parmar , chairman of
Amul lost in Thasra as did Raghavji Patel in Jamnagar(rural).
With the top leadership of the Congress in the
state decimated, youthful Paresh Dhanani who won from his Amreli constituency
will now emerge to leadership position in the Gujarat Congress alongside the
triad of youth leaders,OBC leader Alpesh Thakore and dalit leader Jignesh
Mevani who contested as an independent with Congress support. Hardik Patel, being
underage did not contest the polls but remained a potent patidar vote puller
for the opposition. Though BJP won 28 seats and the Congress 23 of total 52 seats where patidars account for 20
per cent or more voters,the figure in 2012 was 36 for the BJP and 14 for the
Congress with Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party(GPP) accounting for
two seats.
The regional tally of the rivals is highly
indicative. In the Saurashtra-Kutch region, the Congress doubled it’s tally
from 15 in 2012 to 30 seats((45.5 per
cent) this time while the BJP which bagged 38 seats in 20I2 was down to 23(45.9
per cent). In north Gujarat which has emerged as a Congress stronghold, the BJP
was down one seat from 2012 with 14 while the Congress tally of 17 remained
constant. In Central Gujarat , both rivals maintained the 2012 status quo of BJP 37 and congress 22 but it
was in South Gujarat that though the BJP
lost ground as compared to 2012 ,it still maintained a decisive lead, winning
25 seats with 54 per cent votes as
against the Congress tally of 8 seats with 36.4 per cent votes. In 2012 the BJP
had won 28 and the Congress 6. Surat city alone accounted for 9 seats for the
BJP to the Congress nil.
In fact, urban areas remained the achilles
heel of the Congress.Just four cities- Ahmedabad (12), Vadodara (4),Rajkot(3)
and Surat (9) contributed 28 seats to the BJP as against 4 that the Congress managed in Ahmedabad while
drawing a blank in the remaining three cities. An even split would have
reversed the power tables. Ironically the wide margin of BJP victories in urban
,even some rurban seats seems to answer why, when the ruling party’s vote share
rose from 47.9 percent (2012) to 49.1 per cent(2017), it’s seats fell by
16.This was because in the 33 urban seats, it won, the average winning margin
was 47,400 votes. In rurban seats, it stood at 26,000 votes on an average. The
surfeit of votes, thus did not add up to corresponding seats. On the other hand
,the Congress vote share rose from 38.9 per cent in 2012 to 41.4 per cent this
time but the spread was fairly even and resulted in comparatively more seats. The
Congress gave six seats to muslim candidates, three of whom romped home ,two in
Ahmedabad and one in Wankaner.
If the cities including the patidars therein remained
loyal to the BJP, the agricultural belt and the patidars in Saurashtra switched
to the Congress and played a key role in raising their seat tally to 80. After
tying up firebrand OBC leader Alpesh Thakore in his own constituency, the BJP
opted to consolidate OBC caste groups to make up for the erosion of the patidar
vote base which was one of the factors that helped them save face.
Interestingly in 29 constituencies, NOTA(none
of the above) also made it’s presence felt exceeding the margin of victory or
defeat. This means that in one of every six constituencies, NOTA exercised
decisive sway.BJP won 15 of these seats, the Congress 13 and an independent
one. At 5.5 lakh votes, it had a 1.8 per cent vote share, making it the third
largest party. For comparison’s sake, Congress rebel Shankersinh Vaghela’s, All
India Hindustan Congress(AIHC) put up 95 candidates who cumulatively polled
82,000 votes or a mere 0.3 per cent of the total votes polled in Gujarat this
time. It was way lower than NOTA. If the Shankersinh set up was supposed to be BJPs
‘B’ team, it miserably failed to even play that role and ended up a dud raising
question marks on the veteran politician’s career.
For all the
ridicule being heaped on Rahul Gandhi
for his soft hindutva to counter the BJP’s religious cleaver, the move
seems to have worked. Congress won 18 seats in the areas where Rahul had made
temple visits including Somnath. Ten of these seats were wrested from the BJP
while eight were retained by the Congress.
While the long term gains will unfold over
time, the immediate one for the Congress will be that of the four Rajya Sabha
seats falling vacant from Gujarat in April 2018,the BJP will have the numbers
to retain only two so the ruling party’s tally from the state will go down from 9 of 11 to 7 of
11 members and the Opposition’s rise
correspondingly !.
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