Why Does Modi Want Ahmed Patel Defeated
BY R.K.MISRA
Why is the BJP investing so much in defeating
Ahmed Patel, political advisor to Congress president Mrs Sonia Gandhi in the
Rajya Sabha elections in Gujarat?
The BJP-both the party and it’s
government-working in tandem have invested innumerable brain and brawn manhours trying to sculpt
the defeat of Patel. In this pursuit, it has been brazenly unmindful of the
dent to it’s image in the use of central agencies in the raid on a Bangaluru
resort where the Gujarat Congress legislators were put up and on a business group
in Vadodara considered close to Patel.
The heave-ho is only because, this
single move, if it succeeds, will prove a psychological blow to a Congress
already laid low by it’ s defeat in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa but
heading for Gujarat elections with an advantage.
Mrs Gandhi still remains a bugbear for
the BJP, for it was she who had virtually single handedly, burst the ‘India
Shining” bubble of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government to bring the UPA led
Congress to power in 2004.Remember BJP leader Sushma Swaraj’s threat to tonsure
her head if Sonia Gandhi became the prime minister!.
Three years into national governance, the
Narendra Modi government is still wary
of an ailing Mrs Gandhi’s ability to resurrect her party. The defeat of her
political advisor would be a strategic blow to the psyche called Congress. It
is this indelible stamping of the Congress with India, that the RSS wants
cleansed before the saffron idea of ‘Bharat’
can be sown in the soil being readied by
the Modi-Shah combine, best articulated through the slogan of a “Congress-mukt
Bharat’(Congress free India).
Besides the national ramifications of
Ahmed Patel’s election result, it will also set the trend for the Gujarat
Vidhan Sabha polls to follow in November-December 2017, restoring some
semblance of balance in a state where the government has been dithering
aimlessly after the departure of Modi for Delhi. The Indian Prime Minister understands that a defeat in Gujarat would be
a body blow to his plans to retain Delhi in 2019 !
The situation in the poll bound state
could not have been better tailored for the Congress opposition with ethnic
strife-agitated patidars, incensed dalits and restive OBCs- also
anti-incumbency working to it’s advantage and against the ruling BJP. Vaghela’s
departure and Patel’s defeat has already taken the sheen of the challenge and
could well unnerve the opposition preparing to do battle.
Times change. For four term Rajya
Sabha member, Ahmed Patel getting elected to the upper house was a cake walk. Until
this fifth time.
This time, Patel, undoubtedly one of
the most powerful politician in the Congress pantheon, after the ‘family’ is
locked in a life or death battle with his fate to be decided on August 8,the
date the Gujarat Vidhan Sabha votes to elect three of four members in the fray.
BJP national president,Anit Shah who
seeks to switch from the Gujarat Assembly to the Upper House and union textile
minister Smriti Irani are a certainty. In normal circumstances so would have
Ahmed Patel been. Until Shankersinh Vaghela, leader of the Congress opposition
quit his post and announced that he
would be quitting the party too after casting his vote in the Rajya Sabha
elections.
Though Patel, this time, is a victim
of his own politics. He and his party both seem to have miscalculated on two
fronts. Firstly well aware of Shankersinh Vaghela’s past record they took his
influence within the Congress too lightly. He had pulled down two BJP chief
ministers-Keshubhai Patel and Suresh Mehta-in the first ever BJP government in
Gujarat in 1995-96.Secondly too busy in their intriguing and petty politicking,
the Congress walked into a trap laid by prime minister Narendra Modi and his
loyal chief of operations, Amit Shah fuelling speculation that he was joining
the BJP.
What could be a bigger top grosser political ’coup’ than scalping the
head honcho political advisor of the Congress chief Mrs Sonia Gandhi? It would
be a national political coup d etat! A moral booster for the BJP and humiliating for the Congress.
Corroborative evidence of the BJP
resolve to go all out lies in forcing the Congress to flee the state with their
legislators in the face of rampant poaching with six of their legislators
quitting soon after Ahmed Patel filed his nomination for the Rajya Sabha.Three
of the six joined the BJP and the party’s chief whip in the Vidhan
Sabha,Balwantsinh Rajput is the third nominee of the BJP whose candidature
is meant to upset Patel’s applecart.
Even after the Gujarat Congress legislators moved to the safe haven of their
own government in Karnataka,they were pursued by the Modi government which used
central forces to conduct I-T raids on the Karnataka minister who was looking
after the Gujarat Congress flock. A similar raid followed on an industrial
group in Vadodara speculated to be close to Patel. The intention was clear. The
Modi government was in no mood to relent.
Modi-Shah combine, both being of Gujarati
origin are extremely well versed with the political scenario of the state. The
two also knew of the faction fighting within the Gujarat Congress. Most of it’ s
top line of leaders, Arjun Modvadia, Shaktisinh Gohil, Sidhartha Patel, son of
former chief minister Chimanbhai Patel, have at some time or the other failed to win their own seats during the
almost13 year long rule of chief
minister Modi. Even Bharatsinh Solanki,the current Gujarat Congress chief ,son
of former Congress chief minister Madhavsinh Solanki does not enjoy half the
popular esteem of his father, in whose name stand the record of bagging 149 of
the total 182 seats in the Gujarat Assembly in 1985.Modi could not break this
record and has in the 2017 election set his party a target of bagging 150
seats.
Aware of the fact that the Gujarat
congress leaders were wary of Vaghela, the BJP leaders sought to widen the
distrust. They were well aware that Vaghela who hailed from the RSS stable was
not only aware of their internal functioning but also had a popular base that
could cause them great trouble in the
forthcoming Assembly elections later this year. Modi does not trust
Vaghela and vice versa.
While Modi used Gujarat to build a
power base that propelled him to helm the country, the charge against Ahmed
Patel has been that he never allowed strong leaders to grow in his home state
in his own party. It is no wonder that Congress last won an election in Gujarat
over a quarter century ago-33 years to be precise.(1985). For the remainder, it
sought to come to power in the state through the backdoor, supporting a
Chimanbhai Patel led Janata Dal-Gujarat government in 1990 and a Vaghela
led government in 1996.
For all the outward bonhomie, Patel
has never been comfortable with Vaghela. It was he who played a major role in
weaning away Madhusudan Mistry, a
Vaghela follower and building him in the party hierarchy in Delhi. The
sidelining of Vaghela who sought a role similar to Amrinder Singh in an
election- bound Punjab and the High Command’s continueous ignoring,allegedly
under Patel’s influence, led to a situation where Vaghela walked out in a huff.
The Gujarat Congress leadership chose
to reassure their national leadership that his departure would not cause much
damage, only to come a cropper. As the situation stands Ahmed Patel requires 46
votes to win. The Congress flock now stands reduced from 57 to 51.It has the ‘professed’
support of two NCP and one JD-U legislator. Interestingly the 51 includes
Shankersinh Vaghela and his son Mahendrasinh besides other legislators owing
allegiance to Vaghela.
Though the Congress leadership has expressed optimism
that Patel will win, the crowning irony is that his fate now rests in the hands
of Vaghela .
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