I.N.D.I.A. Fights For Survival , BJP For One More Stint !

 BY R.K.MISRA

Chaos is impatient. It tears down everything just for change  then feeds on itself in constant hunger. But it is also appealing for it tempts you to believe that nothing matters except what you want.

In a fast paced, event-packed fortnight that  saw  us race from moon to sun and our Prime Minister from Johannesburg to Athens, the Indian political pot began  stirring furiously in Delhi even as the combined opposition’s I.N.D.I.A. conclave was underway in Mumbai. The frenetic  whimpering-whispering in the corridors of power and then the cymbal swell- a five-day joint session of Parliament from September 18. All hands on deck, all leave for officialdom cancelled…the build-up begins…..

It is by now, a familiar scenario of national wonderment with the present BJP led unitary government ,beginning with the 2016 demonetisation ,flowing onto  the Covid- induced  2020  lockdown and furthermore.

A special joint session of Parliament is a matter of national importance. It is the first time  in nine years that  such a session is being held after the Narendra Modi government took charge at the Centre in 2014. Interestingly, the perfunctory announcement from Parliamentary Affairs Minister Prahlad Joshi came on X(twitter) ,the monsoon session of Parliament had  just ended on August 11. What transpired in-between? Whither decision making?

Another example. Take the case of Dr Vallabh Kathiria BJP leader  from Rajkot, Gujarat , former minister in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government. On August 17, the surgeon was appointed President of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences(AIIMS),Rajkot. On August 20,he was directed to resign(He himself said so). On August 25, his resignation was accepted. The appointment was by the Centre so the resignation was also sought from there. And nothing in Gujarat moves without clearance  from the top. Kathiria was in the midst of a line-up of felicitation functions when he had to announce that he had been asked to quit leaving organisers embarrassed and partymen speculating. Kathiria’s ordeal apart, his supporters let float that the correctives became necessary  as his name figures for Lok Sabha from Rajkot.

 The Kathiria issue in Gujarat has inadvertently got linked to a larger one  in this home state of Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. Are the Lok Sabha elections planned to be held early or is the entire one nation -one election exercise a scripted play to divert attention from the I.N.D.I.A conclave  underway in Mumbai at that time?. 

The I.N.D.I.A. team is absolutely sure it is so.” An attempt to divert attention from a national opposition combine that is set to challenge Modi and  also away from the fresh allegations against the Adani group”. However  one thing is certain that nothing will be held or divulged  before the G20 Summit in Delhi slated for September 9-10.

The government, meanwhile , remains tight-lipped on the agenda for the session gloating in the build-up as speculation runs riot . Let’s assess its pros and cons. The thrust of the media blitz is on one-nation,one election as the primary reason for it. A panel headed by former President Ram Nath Kovind is set to go into it and recommend. The first general elections in 1951-52 were held simultaneously with the Vidhan Sabha polls and this trend continued in 1957,1962 and 1967.The disruption in synced polls took place thereafter when either the Lok Sabha or state legislatures were dissolved before their time. Nine years is period enough to systematically go about the process instead of inducing theatrically- activated spasmodic convulsions in it.

 A snap poll under any guise seems distinctly feasible and more in line with a Modi thought process. Polls are due in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Telangana later this year. Ground reports point to  BJP facing rough weather in  three of them with dim chances of making it on it’ s own in Telangana. Adverse results in these state elections will impact the Lok Sabha outcome. The BJP currently holds power in 10 out of the country’s 28 states while its alliance is in power in four others. Of the remaining 14 ,Congress is in power in four states while its alliance  has sway in three. Though BJP had acquired control of Karnataka through defections its recent defeat at the hands of the Congress is seen as a major setback. More such debacles in the ensuing state polls will cascade into a tripwire scenario for the BJP in the 2024 general elections.

 The  best possible option for Modi personally would be to make hay while the sun shines. If the announcement of a joint-session of Parliament has to be timed to draw attention from an INDIA conclave, how much more heave-ho efforts would be needed if the Opposition alliance gets its act together and gives the ruling BJP(read Modi) a run for its money. For once the combined opposition is deadly serious and on the other side BJP insiders admit that the Modi magic is waning. In  such a backdrop with the moon behind him, the sun overhead and the G-20 on the side it would be opportune to wax eloquent on these achievements and take on the Opposition head-on by bundling together the Lok Sabha and the five state Assembly elections soonest.

 In the final reckoning,  I.N.D.I.A. fights for survival and the BJP for just one more stint in power.

 This syndicated news column was published in the respective newspapers edition dated  September 5,2023 whose links are given below:-

http://epaper.lokmat.com/lokmattimes/main-editions/Nagpur%20Main/2023-09-05/6

http://odishapostepaper.com/edition/4630/orissapost/page/9