Choice For India's Opposition : Hang Together Or Hang Separately !

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BY R.K.MISRA

Every victory leaves a lesson behind in takeaway tales. As much for the triumphant ,many more for the trounced .

The just concluded elections to the state Assemblies of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh and the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) are no exception. In fact,  the last named would not even qualify to be in the august company of the first two ,were it not for the unprecedented heavy artillery unleashed by the ruling BJP to win a civic poll.

Bundled  together, the three elections threw up three winners and  six losers. The three principal combatants-BJP, Congress and Aam Aadmi Party(AAP)- had one victory each to gloat about and two defeats each to ponder over.

 If Gujarat was retained by the BJP through a record breaking victory, its defeat in Himachal and MCD were ego-bruising. Himachal was a morale booster for the Congress for it  once again proved that the invincibility of  the ruling party at the Centre was more a fallacy than a fact(MP, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Punjab) but the way it lost ground in Gujarat and was wiped out in Delhi should have anxiety written all over its national face. AAP, the baby of the Indian political brood left the BJP bloodied in Delhi and the Congress in Gujarat. However Its clifftop claims of forming the government  and ending up with five seats and 128 forfeited deposits showed it up as a disruptor- braggart . Its sole cherry picking from the chase was acquiring national party status with a 12.92 per cent vote share.

Ironically AAP vote share in Himachal was a mere 1.10 per cent and its quest remained barren, netting a state total of  46,270 votes for all the 68 seats it contested. If the Congress moved in all guns blazing with Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, Sachin Pilot and Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel giving their all to it, AAP seemed to have withdrawn from the scene, point out political analysts choosing to prioritize MCD and then Gujarat. There were 35 seats where the margin of victory was less than 5000 votes and in seven of these less than 1000 votes. Forceful campaigning by AAP may well have ensured a Gujarat repeat in Himachal where Congress got 40 seats  and the BJP 25 with 3 BJP rebels getting elected as independents.

Gujarat Congress leaders rue the absence of Rahul Gandhi and frustration gives way to anger at the G-23 leaders who wanted  the Nehru-Gandhi family out of the way. The presence of Priyanka Gandhi in Himachal made a tangible difference, it is pointed out, their presence here would surely have made a better impact. Ashok Gehlot ,who was made in-charge of Gujarat remained mired in Rajasthan politics. ”It is not Sachin Pilot but Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP  that he will have to deal with in Rajasthan”, says one of them.

 It is an ambitious AAP that  is emerging as a thorn in the Congress flesh . It pushed them out of power in Punjab, reduced them to rubble in Gujarat and may use the same BJP benefitting ’ kamikaze ‘ tactics in Karnataka where elections are due next year and Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, MP and Haryana in 2024.

Congress remains the sole national party confronting  an aggressive Narendra Modi- led BJP which maintains a warlike  approach to electioneering . Its preparations for the 2024 general elections have already begun. Modi not only leads from the front but also puts together the blueprint from trusted confidantes which is then passed on to Amit Shah or the man of the hour for implementation. The Gujarat cabinet which was sworn -in recently has Modi written all over it.

 While Modi has already commenced work on his 2024 bid, the Congress, on the other hand, is yet to get its act together. It has  so far failed to  put together an effective  strategy to counter the twin pincer of  Modi weaning away its promising leaders and AAP eating into its  established vote-base. All available evidence  emerging from the recent history of elections points to AAP studiously working to replace the Congress as the principal opposition to the ruling BJP and thereafter confronting it for the right to rule. AAP has also used the Gujarat elections to project Kejriwal as the one capable of taking on/replacing Modi.

Whither Opposition unity  then to take on Modi’s BJP in the 2024 ?

Is it mere coincidence  that no sooner  did the recent elections get over that Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar who had picked up the gauntlet of uniting the Opposition  finds his hands full with problems multiplying sequentially by the day in his home state where BJP remains the principal opposition party?.  Nitish is credited  with the opinion  that no opposition grouping  can be put together without Congress but for starters he  has been trying to get the Samajwadi offshoots to come together.

There are powerful regional leaders whose parties hold sway in the states while  the BJP except for Karnataka does not have much to show in the south whether it is Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana or Andhra Pradesh. Similar is the scene in Orissa though Bihar, Jharkhand and the hindi belt will see the battle being joined by the BJP. The Achilles heel of the opposition remains the national ambitions of the regional leaders.

In the final reckoning though, the choice before the country’s Opposition,  for the 2024 elections is simple. Hang together or hang separately.

http://epaper.lokmat.com/articlepage.php?articleid=LOKTIME_NPLT_20221220_6_1

http://odishapostepaper.com/edition/4333/orissa-post/page/9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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