Assembly Elections : Yogi Model Comes To Modi's Gujarat

 

 BY R.K. MISRA

Vikas Ave Chhe (Development round the corner) was BJP’s clarion call in 2017, backed by an upbeat manifesto. Five years later bulldozers have made their appearance at BJP’s election rallies, an ominous reminder of the Uttar Pradesh model replacing the Gujarat model.

At BJP rallies, the bulldozers are this time a star attraction. They carry flag-waving supporters and during the rally they stand on display in a row, much like the destroyed Patton tanks were once displayed after the Indo-Pak war of 1965. 

To drive the message home the new mascot of Hindutva, the ‘Hindu Hriday Samrat’ Yogi Adityanath, chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, declares triumphantly at one rally after the other, “our bulldozers made Uttar Pradesh riot-free”.

The UP chief minister is welcomed at Morbi with chants of ‘Buldozer Baba’ by enthusiastic BJP supporters; and he once again reminds listeners what he had achieved with bulldozers in his own state. There is no mention of the collapse of the bridge a month ago leading to the death of at least 134 people. “It feels good to be in the land of Bhagwan Krishna, Mahatma Gandhi, Sardar Patel and PM Modi,” he declares. 

While bulldozers were used in Uttar Pradesh to demolish shops and houses of anti-CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) protestors, almost all Muslims, union home minister Amit Shah reminded people at another election rally at Khambhat, “Fake mazars were removed from Bet Dwarka and the BJP government will continue the clean-up despite opposition from the Congress”. Amit Shah was referring to an extensive demolition drive in Bet Dwarka to clear ‘illegal constructions’ in October this year. Addressing a public meeting in Jamnagar subsequently, Prime Minister Modi complimented the chief minister for restoring the “pride of Bet Dwarka”.

While any link with the assembly election is strenuously denied, the timing tells a different tale. Officials are at pains to point out that unauthorised structures were the ones which were removed and ‘without any discrimination’. Why now and not earlier? To send out a message, they claim before adding that it was done keeping in mind, what else but ‘national security’.

It is merely a coincidence, they claimed, that the Jhakhau fishing harbour is part of a constituency which is considered a Congress stronghold. It switched sides in 2020 when the sitting Congress MLA Pradyumansinh Jadeja went over to the BJP. In the tribal belt, in villages around the Statue of Unity, villagers evicted from their land complain that they were ousted forcibly by the police; and every time a BJP leader or a dignitary visits the statue, the local populace are kept at bay so that they do not voice their grievances.

Demolitions are not the only indication that the BJP has embraced Hindutva as its main electoral plank. The visiting Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who quipped that Rahul Gandhi resembled Saddam Hussein, drove the point home when he said that the present election is “a public referendum on Love Jihad and the Uniform Civil Code”.   Amit Shah has of course said that BJP taught ‘them’ a lesson in 2002 and ensured ‘permanent peace’ in the state. The Prime Minister himself in his election speeches alleged that the Congress was soft on terror till he came along.

Why is the BJP hard-selling Hindutva and terror when it was ‘Development’ that was projected as the force-multiplier for the party and the Prime Minister? It was after all on the strength of the ‘Gujarat model’ that Modi was catapulted on the national stage in 2014 and re-elected in 2019. A ready explanation is that after 27 years in power in the state, the BJP has exhausted much of its goodwill; that a fatigue factor has set in and that the party does not want to harp back on unfulfilled promises.

A more credible explanation is that the party is laying the ground for the general election in 2024, just about 16 months away. With the union government’s performance during the last eight-nine years nothing to write home about, it is a foregone conclusion that in 2024 the party will have to bank upon ‘Ram temple’, ‘national security’, nationalism and terror. Gujarat and the next round of state elections will possibly be used to set the stage and the momentum.

Just take a look at BJP’s poll promises in 2017. The party’s manifesto then spoke of interest-free loans to farmers, brick houses and toilets for the poor, free higher education for women, mohalla clinics, pharmacies selling generic medicines at affordable prices and metro trains in Surat and Vadodara among other things (see box).

In 2022 in contrast, the manifesto promises a Uniform Civil Code, anti-radicalisation cells to identify terrorists and sleeper cells, confiscating the property of rioters and trouble makers, a task force to examine Waqf properties, additional funds for Gaushalas, more stringent punishment for forcible conversions and scrutinise Madrasa curriculum.  Almost as an after-thought, it adds the commitment to create 20 lakh jobs in the next five years.

The promise in 2012 was even higher. 30 lakh jobs and 50 lakh ‘pucca’ houses. Ten years later, nobody in Gujarat reminds the BJP of old commitments even as new promises are made.

The Prime Minister remains the driving force behind BJP’s poll campaign. He may have spent fewer days ‘campaigning’, when did he stop campaigning a wag might ask, but this time he has addressed more rallies and the party is arguably spending even more money than last time. A visiting newsman to Bhavnagar was suitably impressed to see 19 helicopters parked in the hangar; one had brought the Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel and another Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal. The remaining 17 were being used to ferry BJP chief ministers, union ministers and leaders.

On Thursday, as polling was held in half of Gujarat, campaigning went on in the other half. Prime Minister Modi himself was scheduled to take part in a 50-kilometre roadshow through Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad, promising supporters a spectacle like never before. He also played what a section of the media believe a ‘masterstroke’ when he complained that Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge had compared him with ‘Ravana’ of Ramayana. He has been harping on how he is used to being abused by Congress leaders in the past. He has also been reminding people of the power outages, curfews and riots before 2002. Bad memories clearly make for good politics.

“Such long and extended campaign by any prime minister in a state election is rare and has never been seen in India’s electoral history”, said a former BJP leader. The PM’s efforts, he felt, indicated the high stakes.

BJP had polled 49.05 per cent of the votes polled in 2017 with the Congress falling short at 41.44 per cent.  Significantly, the highest vote share of the BJP was recorded in 2002 when it polled 49.85 per cent of the votes. A lot has changed since then. Modi is not as popular as before. The party has suspended from the party as many as 19 rebel candidates. There is for the first time a serious effort by the Aam Aadmi Party to open its account in the state. BJP leaders, however, are confident that it will still win with a landslide.

Seizure of cash, liquor, drugs and precious metals till November 30, according to the Election Commission website, are 28 times higher than in 2017—another indication of everything being thrown into the ring. The EC credits itself and its strategies for the haul though. Sceptical observers, however, believe this to be just the tip of the iceberg.

According to the ECI, ₹27.07 crore in cash, liquor worth ₹14.88 crore, narcotics worth ₹61.96 crore, precious metals valued at ₹15.79 crore and freebies worth ₹171.24 crore have so far been seized in the State. The figure does not include the 143 kg drug haul in Vadodara this week. But a lot more, it is said, have gone undetected.

As all eyes are set on the second and final round of polling on Monday, December 5, political observers agree that the result in the state, with counting due on Thursday, December 8, may well influence the future course of politics. For BJP it will be a setback if it wins fewer seats than in 2017.

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