Gujarat : Political ' Kabaddi ' And The December Draw

 BY R.K.MISRA

The election to the 57 vacancies in the Rajya Sabha has just ended after a political ‘kabaddi’ of sorts and  the field is warming up for another - the December draw of the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh state Assembly contest. But first the future.

Whenever elections come close, the to and fro traffic, between political entities picks up. Whether induced or on its own, in Gujarat it is largely one-sided-from the  ranks of the Opposition to the ruling BJP. The Congress has lost its  young, one- agitation old , state working president, Hardik Patel and  veteran three- election old legislator Ashwin Kotwal, to name a few.

The Aam Admi Party(AAP) plagued by similar desertions, moved into damage control, broomed its state unit ,retaining only the president, Gopal Italia after an internal assessment, and  has appointed a fresh set-up. ”So far the stress was on  mass reach-out now it is on winning the elections”, says Italia. What he did not say was that the internal assessment had revealed breaches which would be utilised by the opponents to engineer well publicized defections as the battle is joined.

Moving fast, AAP put a more elaborate and cohesive party structure in place appointing 850  office-bearers including  heads of all its frontal organisations while moving others who were instrumental in nurturing the infant set up, to national positions. Former journalist Isudan Gadhvi has been made the national  joint general secretary and Indranil Rajguru, the national joint secretary. AAP has already covered  all the 182 Assembly constituencies through its “ Parivartan yatra” and 10,000 villages through its “gram baithak” programme , said Sandeep Pathak, the  party’s Gujarat in-charge, Rajya Sabha MP and the man credited with the party’s Punjab victory.” The main fight in Gujarat  is between  the BJP and AAP’, he  says confidently.

While this may not be entirely true, there is a growing perception that though AAP’s urban gains will be at the cost of the BJP, any success in  the rural areas  will cut into the Congress tally. The BJP has ,in a very planned manner, skimmed AAP of its cream leadership in Himachal Pradesh where it’s state president and other key office-bearers switched to the BJP. Like-wise in Uttarakhand, state  chief Deepak Bali and  chief ministerial nominee Col. Ajay Kothiyal both joined the BJP recently.

In Gujarat AAP’s atmospherics is aimed at projecting itself as the main challenger of the BJP but the fact is that it is working to replace the Congress as the main opposition in the state. In the 2017 elections it drew a blank but its lone claim to fame is having won 27 seats in the  120 member Surat Municipal Corporation to the BJP’s 93, replacing the Congress which drew a blank, as the Opposition.

Two key industrialist-cum-philanthropic figures of the state who moved towards Congress and AAP respectively had second thoughts and changed their mind. Surat Businessman Mahesh Savani who had joined AAP with great fanfare  announced seven months later that politics was not his cup of tea. Similarly , Naresh Patel, head of the powerful Khodaldham Trust, a rock-solid organization of patidars , finally decided against joining the Congress. Patel had over months ,been involved in elaborate discussions with the national Congress leadership and his joining the party had been cleared at the highest level. Even the state  Congress leaders including all the big-wigs had  conveyed to him that they were alright  with him being projected as the party’s chief ministerial face . Besides  other community leaders had also given their assent. Nevertheless, he remained  confused , by his own admission,  and finally decided against joining  for now. The reason for it is not too far to seek.

State Congress  chief  Jagdish Thakore is confident about taking on the BJP. “We have been at work marking out our strategy and for all the hype and hoopla,  that you hear from both the BJP and AAP, rest assured  we are very much in the reckoning. We have set ourselves an achievable target of 125 of the total 182 seats’, says Thakore.

Adds Dr Manish Doshi, Congress spokesperson, ”If you believe that the 77 seats we won in 2017 was a fluke, then  check the statistics of BJP election results ever since Modi took charge in Gujarat 2001.The seat share is falling in direct proportion to the hype that is rising. Last time  Amit Shah was emphatic of winning 150 seats. Their tally fell below 100 . Now they talk of winning  all 182,watch the results”.

The BJP is alright with AAP gaining a modicum of heft in Gujarat because it believes that it will only divide opposition votes. Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-E-Muslimeen(AIMEM) likewise  weaning any minority votes would work only to the benefit of the ruling party in Gujarat.

Nevertheless, the BJP is not taking any chances and with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, visiting their home state  with an increased frequency of  public engagements, the build-up for the elections has begun in right earnest.

(http://odishapostepaper.com/edition/4128/orissa-post/page/9)