India Poll Tales : Gujarat , Himachal Pradesh Next
BY R.K.MISRA
The physics of elections
is the science of intense heat, blinding light and deafening sound but sans substance. And
Gujarat is the next state of the Indian Union up for this electoral
extravaganza alongside Himachal Pradesh,
later this year.
Himachal Pradesh
may be high on the agenda of the Aam Admi Party(AAP) whose eyes are firmly
fixed on the erstwhile PEPSU( Patiala and East Punjab States Union) but for
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his powerful deputy, Amit Shah, Gujarat is a
protected preserve from where the knight in shining armour ventured forth to
win India. The citadel must be safeguarded irrespective of costs or considerations.
PEPSU was a
state of India between 1948 and 1956 uniting eight princely states and loosely
covering what is today mainland Punjab, parts of Haryana and Himachal Pradesh.
Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP today controls Delhi for whatever it is worth, has won
Punjab from the Congress to showcase its worth and will majorly target Himachal
and Haryana to build its biceps , a homogenous whole-an AAP corridor of sorts-
if it plans to have a say in the political affairs of India or even the
national Opposition.
AAP has nevertheless, strategised to hurl the gauntlet at the BJP in Gujarat, if
only to keep its principal opponents, including the Congress, tied down. Himachal
like Gujarat has largely had the two principal opponents battling it out but
AAP is set to play disruptor and seems
intent on turning Karnataka into a four cornered contest as well with BJP,
Congress and JDS already present there.
For the moment
it is a divided ,squabbling opposition-Congress and AAP- which should warm the cockles of the ruling BJP’s heart in
Gujarat as well as nationally, going by
the age old adage of divided you fall. However Modi is too much of an old war
horse not to understand. He neither takes chances nor trusts and within hours
of wrapping up Uttar Pradesh, landed on
home soil to review things afresh.
Gujarat is
crucial for the BJP and HP for AAP while
the Congress fights a rearguard action for
relevance . However poised precariously in between is the Presidential election
which possesses the capacity to re-align forces nationally. India must elect a
new President by July 24. According to a published estimate, the BJP- led National Democratic Alliance(NDA) has 2.2 per
cent less than the combined Opposition in the electoral college for the
Presidential election as of now. And therein lies the rub for lots can change
due to the Opposition alignment or the lack of it or, conversely , Modi’s
ability to have his way or backdown to a compromise choice. The outcome will
influence the ensuing state elections or
those that follow thereafter up to the
2024 Lok Sabha contest. Meghalaya, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Madhya
Pradesh, Rajasthan in 2023 and Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and
Sikkim in 2024.
No wonder, the
spectacle has already begun in Gujarat. Kutub Minar high claims and Eiffel
Tower tall announcements are competing with an unending stream of government advertisements with Prime
Minister Modi’s picture being the only common strand. Two prime ministers, Boris
Johnson of the UK and Pravind Kumar Jugnauth of Mauritius besides World Health
Organisation(WHO) Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus have visited
Gujarat to a rousing welcome with school children waving flags of the
respective countries and the saffron BJP flag dotting the road divider all the
way from the airport to the state capital indicating that electioneering has already begun.
For the record
Jugnauth and the WHO chief were here for the Global Ayush Investment and
Innovation Summit 2022 while Johnson
flagged off his India visit touching Ahmedabad first. ”India shall provide Ayush
visa, certification” announced the Indian Prime Minister creating a new visa
category. He also took the opportunity to lay the foundation stone for a Rs
20,000 crore electric locomotive factory at Dahod while in the tribal district
to address a tribal ‘mahasammelan’
besides inaugurating projects worth Rs 1400 crores during his three- day visit.
Johnson too inaugurated a JCB factory and visited industrial group Adani’s
headquarters fuelling speculation of heightened defence and industrial
collaboration. In short, it is raining projects and announcements with the
intensity set to increase progressively until poll time.
For those of us
who have covered three Gujarat Assembly and two Lok Sabha elections under Modi’s
charge before the third one catapulted him to prime ministerial position, it is
a predictably familiar drill. All roads to Delhi now lead through Gujarat
whether it was Chinese President Xi Jinping or Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe who laid the foundation for the ambitious bullet train project in
Ahmedabad, ahead of the 2017 Gujarat Assembly elections to the VIP visits
presently underway.
BJP has ruled
Gujarat for over a quarter century and Modi for
more than half of it , becoming the longest serving chief minister in
the history of the state. The only record that eluded him was Congress chief
minister Madhavsinh Solanki’s 149 seats out of the total 182 in 1985. But the
fact remains that the BJP has been
steadily losing electoral ground in Gujarat. Amit Shah campaigned with a benchmark of 150 seats in
the 2017 State Assembly polls and ended up with the lowest tally after the advent
of Modi rule- one less than 100. Modi’s high point was 127 seats for the BJP in
2002 which came down to 117 in 2007 and 115 in 2012. His departure for Delhi
has seen further erosion. He nevertheless rules the state with a hawk-like gaze
and an iron grip, juggling chief ministers , cleaning out cabinets and changing legislators to deftly
deflate anti-incumbency. “it works”, said his state party chief , C.R. Patil
who makes it a point to tell his party legislators that they have been elected
only because of the work and vision of Modi.
For all the
strategised communal cleaving which has
been a continuous part of electoral politics ever since the Gujarat Gaurav
yatra of 2002 reaped a bonanza in the state elections that followed, things
have been getting tougher for the BJP
with every passing poll. Modi had pulled out all stops in campaigning in 2017
but scraped through to power by a mere 7 seats in the face of a resurgent
Congress in a 182- member house.
The presence of AAP,
fresh from the success of Punjab , may seem to dent even damage
the Congress Opposition prospects at first glance but this does not
stand reasoned scrutiny. It is an
evolving onion peal scenario and the Congress, for all its apparent disarrayed
state, is still very much in the reckoning. It remains the principal Opposition
party taking on the BJP In Gujarat as of now.
( https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/gujarat-dont-write-off-congress-despite-aaps-entry-1103719.html
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