Prime Minister Modi : So Predictable In His Unpredictability !

 

BY  R.K.MISRA

  Prime Minister Narendra Modi is  predictable in his unpredictability.

And so is the din, drama and drop dead timing of  his decisions to draw maximum mileage for himself.

Take the change of guard in Gujarat. On September 11,2021 Prime Minister Modi  e-inaugurated the Sardardham bhavan in Ahmedabad built by the politically powerful and numerically abundant Patidar community. Hours later Vijay Rupani puts in his papers becoming the third BJP chief minister to do so in as many months countrywide.

 A day later he is  replaced by an obscure Bhupendra Patel, a first time legislator. It is a poll-time message for 15 per cent of the Patidar voting population with tilting influence in 69 of the 182 Gujarat Vidhan Sabha seats.

 The timing makes it clear that it will be a Patidar(Patel), all key BJP Patidar leaders are called in in attendance, flying in from Delhi even Andamans. The media goes berserk bandying all manner of Patidar names-deputy chief minister Nitin Patel to Daman administrator Praful Patel and union ministers Mansukh Mandaviya and Purshottam Rupala to Gordhan jhadafiya and former state party chief R.C.Fardu.

On Sunday September 12, the  state party goes  through all the ‘motions’ of democratic procedures that  mark a chief minister’s selection by elected legislators, albeit robotically. The surprise choice, quite simply, leaves the frontrunners fuming within and the party rank and file fumbling without, quite unable to understand the process. Nevertheless, everyone pastes a smile, fully aware that the decision comes from Narendra Modi. He is the party, he is the government ,the rest is all additive frills !

Nothing grows under a banyan tree. Gujarat has two of them, Modi and Shah. Anandiben Patel who succeeded Modi as chief minister in 2014 was a strong leader  who took independent decisions but paid the price for it.

See the irony. A strong Patidar  women chief minister was ousted through a Patidar agitation  for enhanced rights and placements and replaced by a non-Patidar light weight, Vijay Rupani in August 2016. Now, five years later, the same person is being replaced to bring in another lightweight Patidar, ostensibly to placate the Patel vote bank.

Anandiben was the last of the mohicans. No chief minister in Gujarat can function  independently. A hawk’s eye guards the Prime Minister’s home state. Any setback here  would blight his image everywhere. There is Modi’s imprint all over governance in Gujarat. Shah remains the quintessential ‘eye-in-the -sky’, guarding his boss’ flock as well as his own.

On the ground there is K.Kailashnathan ,an IAS officer of the 1979 batch who did duty in the Chief Minister’s Office (CMO) during Modi’s tenure and continues thereon even after his retirement and Modi’s move to Delhi, outlasting two chief ministers and going onto the third.

Modi’s 12 year plus term as chief minister in Gujarat was marked by two loyal deputies in the cabinet  who owed allegiance to him. Anandiben Patel who looked after brain and money(Revenue, education, Road and Buildings) and Amit Shah who took care of brawn and muscle(police, jails and the like). Both were sworn political opponents. Patel took over from Modi in Gujarat and Shah went to Delhi as  national party chief but back home their wires continued to cross.

 The all- important Hardik Patel led  Patidar rally in Ahmedabad in August 2015 had passed off peacefully- when under prompting from someone other than the then chief minister- police went berserk late at night, attacking Patel majority residential societies and violence flared  up consuming the Anandiben Patel government. She was replaced by Rupani, a greenhorn Shah supporter. Bhupendra Patel who now takes charge was her choice replacement for the Vidhan Sabha seat vacated by her and is her protégé. The clock has now come full circle.

Rupani has been scalped for compulsions of electoral politics. He had no say beyond providing the infrastructure and organization for the ‘Namaste Trump’ rally in Ahmedabad on February 23,2020 which led to the proliferation of Corona in the state. It was out and out a Prime Minister Modi show for the white supremacist Republican US President, Donald Trump.

Vijay Nehra, the then Ahmedabad municipal commissioner who sought to identify corona cases in a bid to contain the contagion was transferred out- not because Rupani wanted it-  but because Delhi was perturbed at the rising cases which brought it infamy. Brushing  under the carpet does not help but the Chief minister was held to account for it then, and cashiered now.

In fact Rupani would have gone earlier in June around the time when Delhi Chief Minister and AAP chief  Arvind Kejriwal visited the state to induct popular journalist Isudan Gadhvi into the party but was stalled as it would have sent a wrong message. Kamalam, the state BJP headquarter was a hive of frenetic activity with  the national party leadership on call, all key  Gujarat  leaders being bunched together and the intelligence wing on alert in the districts to check out for any  likely desertions.

AAP’s miniscule achievement- bagging 27 seats in the Surat Municipal Corporation elections to the BJP’s 93 in a 120 member house(the congress drew a blank) has been a thorn in the BJP’s side.  Moreso, because it is the home ground of state BJP chief C.R. Patil who is Modi’s ‘machete’ man, be it Gujarat, Bihar or Benaras.

The good work done in AAP s Surat wards  during the second corona wave  and the popular recognition of it, has only added to the discomfort. A top  notch  Surat diamond merchant, also a Patidar, known for his philanthropy, joining  AAP sent alarm bells ringing in the saffron edifice, hastening the process of Rupani’s departure.

The cause for consternation lies in the umbilical chord that binds a swathe of Saurashtra to Surat as the labour  and fuel that energises this financial capital of Gujarat comes from the former region, including the Patidars. Saurashtra is the Achilles heel of the BJP and the echoes from Surat resound rapidly there. So the additional need to pacify the Patels.

Past lapses and lacunae, pasted on the chief minister who is now the past, may give the ruling  BJP a new, clean slate for the ensuing 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections, or so it believes but the new chief minister Bhupendra Patel will have to deal with the same set of problems- remote control and fighting an electoral bout with one hand tied behind his back and his eyes looking Delhi-wards. It does not matter whose follower you are, ultimately you are the fall guy in an election fought under the name of Narendra Modi. Heads, I win, tails, you lose !

Old time television sets had a feature called picture-in-picture. Thus there is also a larger picture beyond Gujarat in the sequence of national events. BJP’s brinkmanship in Bihar elections 2020 aimed at outsmarting it’s own coalition partner, Nitish Kumar’s Janta Dal(United) saw it almost tethering on the edge before retaining power by the skin of their teeth. West Bengal  polls where the BJP  went hammer and tongs saw the might of Modi-Shah bruised  by a leg bandaged Mamta’s Trinamool Congress.

The hat-trick of setbacks was complete when UP Chief Minister Aditya Nath successfully resisted all attempts to foist Modi confidante, A.K. Sharma, an IAS officer of the Gujarat cadre  ,doing duty in his CMO and later PMO as deputy chief minister of UP. Sharma who quit the civil service ,hails from UP and  is now doing duty as BJP vice-president in the state. Nath also seems to have made it known to the party top brass that the ensuing UP elections will be fought with him as the mascot and not Delhi leading the charge.

Those who have covered Modi for long, know that he has a way of getting even. The chief ministerial heads that are rolling in BJP ruled states-some which have and some more will- is an assertion of his authority.  

 https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/rupanis-exit-modis-predictable-unpredictability-and-aap-surge-in-gujarat-1030230.html

 

 

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