BJP Blueprint 2019 : Kashmir Pace-setter For Polarised Polls


BY R.K.MISRA

An idea rarely gets bigger than the brain cell it occupies, or so goes the saying.
And thus every time  polls near, the foxes develop a pronounced interest in prolonging the lives of the poultry.

Two  events on the national political canvass held in close proximity provide a clear indicator of the Narendra Modi- led BJP government’s strategy for the general elections 2019. While the first was the promulgation of Governor’s rule in Jammu and Kashmir on June 20,the second was the two day  meeting in Ahmedabad, Gujarat on June 25 to formulate it’s strategy for next year’s Lok Sabha elections.

The meeting was  attended  by  BJP national chief Amit Shah, Union ministers  Purshottam Rupala and Mansukh Mandavia , Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani, deputy chief minister Nitin Patel ,BJP Gujarat in-charge Bhupendra Yadav two Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh(RSS) leaders -Yashwant Chaudhary and Gujarat prant pracharak Chintan Upadhyay- besides the state party chief Jitu Vaghani. A total of about three dozen people attended the closed door conclave.

“The 2019 polls are no normal elections. It is a fight for sovereignty of India. Keeping in view the enemy states in the neighbourhood and global competition, it is imperative that once again a government under Narendra Modi is formed”, said Vaghani.

Though the Ahmedabad meeting was  meant to kick-start next year’s poll preparations in relation to Gujarat, it  provided tell-tale indicators of the line of campaigning. It is now amply clear that the poll discourse will be built around the ‘sovereignty-in-peril- defend-with-all-your-might’ narrative that requires Modi back in power.

Corroboratory evidence, if any was required, is provided by the decision to break the alliance in Jammu and Kashmir after having consorted with an ideological ‘enemy’ for good of three years. The worsening condition in the valley had the BJP complicit in all acts of omission and commission of the Mehbooba Mufti led Alliance government.The baggage was obviously proving a drag not only in Jammu but also countrywide where pulpit patriotism will form a forceful part of the poll narrative. And so the break-up.

Inherent in such a narrative is the premise that the ensuing parliamentary elections will be a dirty, no-holds barred polls where polarization will be the fulcrum on which the ruling party’s campaign will rest. Notwithstanding the  United Nations report on human rights violations in Kashmir( which has already been denied by the Indian army chief), a tough stand by the security forces will be trumped up by an obliging television media to show up Centre’s rule in the valley as the herculean panacea that has a cure all affect-all to bolster the ruling party’s poll prospects.

Modi’s politics and even governance  in Delhi , has for most part, remained an extension of his forays in his home state. There are all indications that the BJP will persist with the ‘Gujarat polarization model’ that it perfected and has used in successive  state elections with varying results.

 If the 2002 elections in Gujarat that followed the Godhra train carnage ,   was foisted on ‘miyan Musharraf’ while targeting the minority community in the state and earned the ‘hindu hriday samrat’, a landslide victory, a variation may be on offer in the hope of a similar outcome.

Already, majoritarian politics has been on full play with an  underlying  hate campaign seeking to tar the Kashmiri muslim in the rest of the country as ‘anti-India’ with the social media as eloquent testimony to the organised effort. The same narrative is expected to be widened for vote polarization with ‘gourmet’ add-ons  and ‘ spicy’  Pakistan garnishings in the hope of a palate tickling poll serving.

If not this, then what? For Modi, desperate times call for desperate measures. Even if one refrains from passing judgement on his four years of rule, the most dedicated saffronista will admit that his popularity is nowhere near 2014 when he assumed power riding atop a crest of popular expectations.

The Prime Minister’s home state ,Gujarat can be a revealing test case.The BJP bagged all 26 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. It should thank it’s stars if it gets between 12 to 14 seats.

The entire political landscape has undergone a sea-change.The state is beset with internal strife with farmers, patels, dalits and even OBCs rising in protest .Restricted to less than 100 seats in a 182 member Gujarat Assembly, the BJP does not have a single legislator in 10 of the 33 districts of Gujarat and only one in another seven. The party has lost major ground in Saurashtra region in the 2016 local self -government elections.

Aware of the shortcoming and with the national polls looming, the cash rich BJP is busy making up the shortfall, the only way it has perfected, by destabilizing the Congress ruled panchayats. The Congress has lost five district and 30 taluka panchayats.”The BJP is blatant in it’s use of money power, government machinery and bringing pressure on our members, some of them being paid over Rs two crores each’, points out Amit Chavda,the state Congress chief adding that Amit Shah has instructed the chief minister to ensure that the Congress hold in taluka panchayats is reduced to less than half.

Be that as it may, if coming events cast their shadows ahead, past events cannot fail to leave their impress behind as well.




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