Delhi,Bihar And Now Gujarat ?
BY R.K.MISRA
More often than not ,victory walks in on a bicycle when vanity is
sanguinely sailing the skies .The cymbals have ceased and the soldiers are back
in their camps: the one to savour success and the other to debate the debacle .But
India ,after the battle of the ballot in Bihar will never be the same again .A national political re-alignment has begun.
Two crushing
blows in a row-Delhi and now Bihar - has the garrulous Narendra Modi
government dumbstruck .Even as it seeks
to brazen it’s way out of the cul-de-sac with hurried announcement of a long
pending reformist agenda ,a third setback hovers menacingly on the horizon .Incidentally
,it was not Pakistan where crackers were burst after the BJP defeat in Bihar
but in Amit Shah’s own Gujarat .And not in some isolated cases but in most cities ,town and villages of the
state!
Modi and party chief Amit Shah’s bastion ,Gujarat is
under siege .Though State Assembly elections in Gujarat are due only in 1917,a
two phase poll for 323 local self government bodies covering a large chunk of it’s 3,78,15,306 voters
constituting 65 per cent of it’s total
population are set to vote this month .These include six out of it’s total
eight municipal corporations,230 tehsil panchayats,56 municipalities and 31
district panchayats .The BJP presently rules
150 tehsil panchayats,42,municipalities30 district panchayats and all
the eight municipal corporations.
With Gujarat
in the grip of a full-scale rebellion by it’s numerically strong and
financially stable Patidar community ,the Anandiben Patel led BJP government faces the most torrid test
of it’s 18 month old government.
Patidar(Patel)
community constitutes about 14 per
cent of the total 63 million Gujarat
population .The chief minister herself is a Patel as is the state BJP chief
R.C.Fardu and seven of the 24 ministers and 42 of the total 182 legislators belong
to the community .With 21 per cent voter representation ,the Patels are
demanding caste based reservation under the Other Backward Class(OBC) category .Led
by a 22 year old youth ,Hardik Patel, the agitation has witnessed a violent
statewide upsurge that led to 8 people losing their lives and Rs 25,000 crores
in losses to public property and business in just under a week of violence in August .Hardik and his
associates have been booked under sedition charges and are behind bars and this has only added fuel to simmering fires.
While the
existing reservation beneficiary classes including the OBCs had made known their opposition to the
patidar demand ,ironically they are now on the same side after
RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s famous re-think statement on reservations.
Turned into a
BJP fortress under the almost 13 years of Modi rule ,Gujarat is belatedly
feeling a roll away effect .An entire community is publicly going all out to
defeat the BJP. Banners have come up outside residential societies announcing the
imposition of ‘prohibitory’ orders on the entry of BJP candidates or poll
canvassers.”Vote the Congress to defeat the BJP” is the slogan all over.BJP
candidates are finding themselves in such a pitiable condition in many places
that they are being hounded out by people. Such is their plight that in Unjha
town considered the cumin seed trading capital of the country, the BJP could
not put up a single candidate under it’s lotus symbol and had to do so as
independents .A top Congress leader Dhiru Gajera(patel) in Surat who was
planning to switch sides faced such an
onslaught from his community that he had to make a hurried announcement that he
would not do so.
“The kurmis
in Bihar have shown their power by voting full scale against the BJP with clear
results. Now watch out for our
revenge in Gujarat”,points out Patidar
leader AtulPatel. Congress, for long the underdogs are now the beneficiary of
this unforeseen largesse.
A concerned
chief minister Patel ordered a study of their prospects by her CMO
and the results paint a grim picture .The number of sensitive booths are
up by leaps and bounds and the state government has asked for 100 companies of
para-military forces for peaceful conduct of the polls .The state government
had desperately tried to stall the
elections even getting an ordinance passed
by the state governor on the recommendations of the State Election
Commission(SEC).However the High Court struck down the ordinance and gave a
mouthful to the SEC directing it to hold them forthwith.”If elections can be
held in Jammu and Kashmir ,surely you can too ”,it stated. Things are bad for
the BJP in Gujarat for these polls ,say political observers.
Thus it is
that two of Prime Minister Modi’s closest confidantes are in deep trouble .While
party president Amit Shah is facing flak for the Bihar debacle ,Anandiben Patel
is being targeted by her own community leaders within the party. In the case of
Shah,veterans L.K.Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Yashwant Sinha and Shanta kumar
have already made public their demand for accountability .This in short is the
demand for Shah’s head with party MPs from Bihar also chiming in. Modi is not
one to give in so easily because it is through Shah that he maintains a cast
iron grip over the party apparatus.
Similarly, in
Gujarat the agitation was initially backed by party insiders who
had taken recourse to this community stir in a bid to target chief minister Patel fully aware that the Prime Minister would not allow destabilising the present
government in Gujarat. However a setback in the ensuing local self government
elections will force a re-think and therefore a question mark on the future of Anandiben
Patel stares her in the face. Similarly if the demand for Shah’s removal gains
momentum, Modi may be forced to move him.
In such a backdrop the likelihood of
Shah fulfilling his lifelong desire of becoming the chief minister of Gujarat
may find fulfillment as Modi will not trust the state in anybody except his
very trusted hands . Anandiben Patel may then find place in the Modi cabinet at
the Centre. But before that happens ,
he will require a trusted replacement for Shah in cut-throat Delhi .Easier said
than done!
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