Waning Modi Magic !

 BY R.K.MISRA

One cold swallow does not make a summer but  swallowing bile once too often suggests a stomach churn that leaves a bitter taste in the mouth. The ruling BJP which hoped for a soulful sonata this summer, post-election in Karnataka ,is finding the rendition sombre if not saddening. Sombre, if it heeds the warning sign, saddening ,if it does not.

The saffron set-up went hell for leather, pitching Gods into the campaign with religious fervour and came a cropper, its ‘pappu’- led opponent concerned themselves with the cause of lesser mortals and savoured success. There are many lessons in this loss for the vanquished and as many for the victor but  a single question occupies centre space: Is the ruling diamond losing its lustre?

For those of us in Gujarat who have watched Narendra Modi grow over  the last half a century from a backroom boy to a strapping  persona of the Indian political firmament, also know of his passion for singular  command and control. Like a good general he leads from the front but then every frontline skirmish is not led by a corps commander nor every battle handled by an army chief. His strength lies in selection of able deputies and command of commanders.

If victories add to the aura of the party icon, defeats subtract from it as well. After losing power in Himachal Pradesh, the severe setback in Karnataka is sticking out like a sore thumb. Like In West Bengal,  Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat, the BJP hurled everything into the fight in Karnataka ,a virtual ‘Modi versus the rest’ scenario. It lost in Himachal to the Congress but with a partisan media heralding its efforts, seized the high ground with a steamroller victory in Gujarat which is the citadel of both Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. The Karnataka election was fought by the BJP  seeking votes for Modi’s leadership of the union. The results have the potential of raising uncomfortable questions that cast a shadow on the very image that the saffron set-up hopes to encash for enhanced electoral dividends.

Elections are due this year in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. Madhya Pradesh like Karnataka  had Congress in power but the BJP-ruled Centre toppled the government to install its own. With  the southern state showing the way and internecine battles coming to the fore between the Congress inducted and the core-BJP cadres, the outcome is anybody’s guess.

Ideally all BJP strategy initiatives should factor in the need for guarding Modi’s persona and power for the 2024  general elections rather than fritter it away in bruising state battles that are akin to lost causes. That BJP was on the backfoot in Karnataka was the worst kept secret and yet Modi was hurled into hectic campaign schedules including  consecutive road shows to what end results?

The BJP rules 14 states including seven of the north-east where it is in power either singly or in coalition while Congress or its alliance is in power in seven states while regional parties are in power in six and AAP in Punjab.

The trust factor  between the Modi-ruled Centre and the Opposition ruled states is at an all-time low. The epic run-in between the Aam Admi Party(AAP) ruled  Delhi government and the Centre-backed Lt. Governor is showing up the BJP as a bad loser. The BJP has thrice been roundly defeated by AAP in successive Delhi government elections. The results of the Municipal Corporation of Delhi(MCD)elections is a decisive and continuing mandate  in favour of AAP and the stalemate only adds to the earlier assertion. This is further buttressed by the judgment of the Constitution bench of the Supreme Court in the matter and the Centre’s move to bring in an Ordinance to numb its impact are short-sighted moves that  will detract from Modi’s image and cast it’s shadow on the 2024 election results.

Additionally, such moves  are falling  into a pattern which is not going unnoticed and is becoming a herding tool for driving the Opposition to shed all differences and  come together to take on  the Modi- led BJP. After the Karnataka results, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Bannerji has softened her stand towards the Congress. AAP chief minister, Arvind Kejriwal has in no uncertain terms voiced before Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar the need for  Opposition  support for his government’s ongoing tussle with the Centre and was promised the same. Kejriwal said that he will reach out to the chiefs of all Opposition parties so that any Bill brought by the Centre is defeated in the Rajya Sabha.

For the bulk of his tenure as chief minister of Gujarat, Modi  had carved out for himself an image-perception of a victim ‘David’ battling a corrupt and oppressive’ Goliath- like’ UPA government  and in the midst of  this obstruction creating a Gujarat model of development. It was  this image and persona which catapulted him and BJP to power at the Centre in 2014. Much water has flowed down both the Jamuna and the Sabarmati ever since and the shoe is now on the other foot. The CBI was then described as the ‘Congress Bureau of Investigations’ , the Opposition now has a new name for it as it has for the Enforcement Department.

The Bharat-jodo yatra has not only benefited the Congress in Karnataka but it has also brought Rahul Gandhi into national reckoning as a serious political player and a determined counter-point to Modi and the politics being espoused by him  and his party.

 All through his political journey ,India’s Present Prime Minister has on numerous occasions held forth on his social and political persecution. The Surat judgement, and the  unduly hasty sequence of official events thereafter, the pendulum of popular perception is tilting the other way. And the BJP has no one to blame but itself for it.

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