Myth & Reality Of Gujarat Elections 2017

BY R.K.MISRA

It’s bluster bagged and it’s bluff called, the BJP fell back on sizzle to hide it’s blushes in Gujarat.

And for it, what a grandstanding did Prime Minister Narendra Modi ensure, back home for the December 26 swearing-in ceremony. Notwithstanding, one death and two hospitalizations in creating the grandeur, there was virtually the entire union cabinet and eighteen Chief Ministers from BJP ruled states, besides religious leaders of all hues and shades and  a re-union of their old as well- margdarshak mandal chief L.K.Advani, former chief ministers Keshubhai Patel, BJP veteran-turned congressman-turned janvikalp leader Shankersinh Vaghela and last ousted  Chief Minister Anandiben Patel, all of vintage BJP stock.

All wax and no wick. No sooner was Vijay Rupani sworn–in the sixteenth Chief Minister of Gujarat with Nitin Patel as his deputy alongside eighteen ministers, began the slugfest over  portfolios which continued for 48 hours until the Prime Minister could find time after the triple talaq bill proceedings in Parliament late on December 28 to clear the list .But more about that later.

A recap . The BJP won Gujarat on December 18 for a record of sorts and  formed the government for the sixth time through an anaemic victory in a keenly fought election  though it’s tally was down to less than a hundred seats, the lowest margin for a single winning party in the state since 1975.The Congress, on the other hand, made nationally rejuvenating gains- it’s best showing in Gujarat since 1985- but fell short of power, primarily because of it’s inability to break through the ruling party’s urban bastion.

The results, in any case, was a distant cry from the BJP bluster of bagging 150 of the total 182 seats in the Gujarat Assembly. Former congress Chief Minister Madhavsinh Solanki’s 1985 record of bagging 149 of the total 182 seats remains unmolested through the Modi era and past this poll as well. For the BJP, the slide is palpable from 127 seats in 2002 to 99 in 2017. In the final tally, BJP bagged 99, the Congress 77, NCP1,Bharat Tribal Party 2 and independents accounting for three seats, two of whom are supporting the Congress.  Though the BJP has got a clear majority for the fifth consecutive time, the Congress did manage to give them the shivers. And therefore the need for an illusion-building pomp and show swearing-in ceremony!

The gains against the last Assembly elections notwithstanding, the Congress has nevertheless suffered a setback in that it’s top leadership in the state has been wiped out. One of it’s tallest leaders Shaktisinh Gohil lost from Mandvi in Kutch and so did Arjun Modvadia(Porbandar),one time state party chief, Siddarth Patel, son of former  chief minister Chimanbhai Patel , Tushar Chaudhary, son of another former Congress chief minister  and a former union minister himself. Unlike the  Congress, the top leadership of the BJP was  able to hold out. Chief minister Vijay Rupani , deputy chief minister Nitin Patel, state BJP chief Jitu Vaghani, education minister Bhupendrasinh Chudasama, former energy minister in Anandiben Patel government Saurabh Patel, all won.

The situation was equally bad for the turncoat politicians who had switched sides from the Congress to the BJP just before the Rajya Sabha elections that saw Ahmed Patel, political advisor to Mrs Sonia Gandhi scrape through by the skin of it’s teeth. Four of six who had got BJP tickets lost in the elections. If Tejshree Patel lost from Viramgam so did Mansinh Chauhan from Balasinor.Cooperative leader Ramsinh Parmar , chairman of Amul lost in Thasra as did Raghavji Patel in Jamnagar(rural).

With the top leadership of the Congress in the state decimated, youthful Paresh Dhanani who won from his Amreli constituency will now emerge to leadership position in the Gujarat Congress alongside the triad of youth leaders,OBC leader Alpesh Thakore and dalit leader Jignesh Mevani who contested as an independent with Congress support. Hardik Patel, being underage did not contest the polls but remained a potent patidar vote puller for the opposition. Though BJP won 28 seats and the Congress 23 of  total 52 seats where patidars account for 20 per cent or more voters,the figure in 2012 was 36 for the BJP and 14 for the Congress with Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party(GPP) accounting for two seats.

The regional tally of the rivals is highly indicative. In the Saurashtra-Kutch region, the Congress doubled it’s tally from 15 in 2012 to  30 seats((45.5 per cent) this time while the BJP which bagged 38 seats in 20I2 was down to 23(45.9 per cent). In north Gujarat which has emerged as a Congress stronghold, the BJP was down one seat from 2012 with 14 while the Congress tally of 17 remained constant. In Central Gujarat , both rivals maintained the  2012 status quo of BJP 37 and congress 22 but it was in South Gujarat that though the  BJP lost ground as compared to 2012 ,it still maintained a decisive lead, winning 25  seats with 54 per cent votes as against the Congress tally of 8 seats with 36.4 per cent votes. In 2012 the BJP had won 28 and the Congress 6. Surat city alone accounted for 9 seats for the BJP to the Congress nil.

In fact, urban areas remained the achilles heel of the Congress.Just four cities- Ahmedabad (12), Vadodara (4),Rajkot(3) and Surat (9) contributed 28 seats to the BJP as against 4 that  the Congress managed in Ahmedabad while drawing a blank in the remaining three cities. An even split would have reversed the power tables. Ironically the wide margin of BJP victories in urban ,even some rurban seats seems to answer why, when the ruling party’s vote share rose from 47.9 percent (2012) to 49.1 per cent(2017), it’s seats fell by 16.This was because in the 33 urban seats, it won, the average winning margin was 47,400 votes. In rurban seats, it stood at 26,000 votes on an average. The surfeit of votes, thus did not add up to corresponding seats. On the other hand ,the Congress vote share rose from 38.9 per cent in 2012 to 41.4 per cent this time but the spread was fairly even and resulted in comparatively more seats. The Congress gave six seats to muslim candidates, three of whom romped home ,two in Ahmedabad and one in Wankaner.

If the cities including the patidars therein remained loyal to the BJP, the agricultural belt and the patidars in Saurashtra switched to the Congress and played a key role in raising their seat tally to 80. After tying up firebrand OBC leader Alpesh Thakore in his own constituency, the BJP opted to consolidate OBC caste groups to make up for the erosion of the patidar vote base which was one of the factors that helped them save face.

Interestingly in 29 constituencies, NOTA(none of the above) also made it’s presence felt exceeding the margin of victory or defeat. This means that in one of every six constituencies, NOTA exercised decisive sway.BJP won 15 of these seats, the Congress 13 and an independent one. At 5.5 lakh votes, it had a 1.8 per cent vote share, making it the third largest party. For comparison’s sake, Congress rebel Shankersinh Vaghela’s, All India Hindustan Congress(AIHC) put up 95 candidates who cumulatively polled 82,000 votes or a mere 0.3 per cent of the total votes polled in Gujarat this time. It was way lower than NOTA. If the Shankersinh set up was supposed to be BJPs ‘B’ team, it miserably failed to even play that role and ended up a dud raising question marks on the veteran politician’s career.

For all the  ridicule being heaped on Rahul Gandhi  for his soft hindutva to counter the BJP’s religious cleaver, the move seems to have worked. Congress won 18 seats in the areas where Rahul had made temple visits including Somnath. Ten of these seats were wrested from the BJP while eight were retained by the Congress.

While the long term gains will unfold over time, the immediate one for the Congress will be that of the four Rajya Sabha seats falling vacant from Gujarat in April 2018,the BJP will have the numbers to retain only two so the ruling party’s tally from  the state will go down from 9 of 11 to 7 of 11 members  and the Opposition’s rise correspondingly !.