Congress On The Upswing In Gujarat But ...
BY R.K.MISRA
Political tempers are rising in
Gujarat in the run up to the state Assembly polls slated for December this
year.
On the one hand, the ruling BJP, which is facing anti-incumbency, finds
itself on the back foot. On the other hand, the opposition Congress finds
itself oscillating between enthusiasm and euphoria. While the first motivates
one to perform better, the other leads to a false sense of complacency.
Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi
has visited Gujarat five times in recent times. In the context of the situation
mentioned above, he could do with a closer look at the cause and affect factors
that are making this contest a slugfest.
The Congress had long been in the
dumps after chief minister Narendra Modi pushed it into virtual obsolescence through
the three Vidhan Sabha elections during his tenure.
However, the Congress mood is now on
the upswing after the last Rajya Sabha
election in the state. The contest saw old horse Shankersinh Vaghela rebel against the party, and Ahmed Patel,political
advisor to Congress president Sonia Gandhi scrape through to the House of Elders
by the skin of his teeth. Both developments took place in close succession. Both
reshaped politics in Gujarat.
BJP president Amit Shah had hoped that
the election would mark his triumphal call to arms, and that the saffron party
would effect Patel’s stunning ouster. However, it turned out to be a
testosterone dose for the opposition. Ditto the departure of Vaghela. Good
riddance for the Congress,is how they put it now.
Rahul’s visits to Gujarat have been
receiving an enthusiastic public
response. It was noticeable in the informal Sabarmati riverfront chat in
Ahmedabad, the Saurashtra visit beginning from Dwarka via the pilgrim town of Chotila and the third one in Central Gujarat. The visits were
flavoured by a good mix of political ‘herbs’ and garnished with a dash of
religious ‘spices’ to get the right anti-Modi taste. Rahul seems to have
matured as a politician. He has been stirring the right chords-paying obeisance
at Dwarka and Chotila ,dwelling on unemployment amongst youth, the rising
suicides amongst farmers, the issue of Shah’s son which shot into headlines and
the like.
The Congress is further bolstered by the lukewarm response to
BJP’s poll forays in the public domain. The Narmada yatra which criss-crossed
the state did not receive the expected
welcome nor did the Gaurav yatra. The latter was expected to revive memories of
chief minister Modi’s statewide tour after the 2002 Godhra train carnage, which
bore excellent electoral results.
However there is need to examine the
finer print. Is the prevalent popular mood a vote of confidence in the Congress
or is it caused by rising anger against the ruling BJP in the state? People in India
grudgingly admire strong political leaders , even those who become a law unto
themselves.Take the case of Indira Gandhi and now Narendra Modi. The present
prime minister may heap criticism on the late prime minister of the country,
but there is more than striking similarity on many counts between the two leaders
and their style of governance .
Modi’s consistent return to power in
Gujarat proves that he had the pulse of the people. He was the party and he was
the government in Gujarat. Like the pied piper, he may have kept people in
thrall, but the disillusionment has been rapid in the period thereafter. Modi’s
successor Anandiben was seen as stubborn but her successor Vijay Rupani- a good
person- is seen as Amit Shah’s man. Both pale into insignificance when compared
to Modi and such comparisons leave a strong
imprint on gujarati psyche.
Thus all the
problems that have followed Modi’s departure to Delhi - whether it is the
patidar agitation, the OBC strife or the dalit oppression- are seen to be
rooted in the post- Modi leadership. There
is not an iota of doubt that the mishandling and the internal bickering of the
Gujarat BJP leaders has seen the rise of
the youth triumvirate of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh
Mevani.
But although
the Congress may be happy with its campaign, the fact is that no one knows the
problems the ruling party is facing in Gujarat better than Prime Minister Modi.
Alighting from the stage after a public meeting in Vadodara, he pointed out to
a local BJP leader that there were more outsiders than locals. The implication
was obvious. It is no wonder that he has chosen to project himself, seeking to
send out a message to the electorate to vote keeping him in mind. This is what
he exactly meant when he said that same party governments at the centre and in
the state can do wonders for Gujarat. This will be his last emotional tug at
the gujarati conscience.
The Congress considers the 2015 local self
government elections held in the backdrop of the patidar stir, as the turning
point. But the fact remains that though the Congress swept the countryside, the
urban support base, though marginally eroded ,remained largely intact. The BJP
won the municipal corporations of Ahmedabad, Varodara, Rajkot, Surat, Jamnagar
and Bhavnagar.
At this juncture,
there are reasons to believe that though rural and even semi-urban areas are
against the BJP, the urbanites though unhappy have not keeled over. A 9 per
cent vote difference(47.9 per cent to
the BJP and 38.9 per cent to the Congress) separated the two opponents in 2012.While
the BJP is expected to dominate the urban seats,a swing towards the congress in the rural areas can bring the
current opposition at par, or even give
it a marginal edge. But in the final reckoning, 40 or 45 seats that can sway
either way will hold the key to who
rules Gandhinagar.
For Modi,
the stakes are extremely high and he will throw everything at his command to
win Gujarat at any cost. A loss in Gujarat will make his journey to winning the
209 general elections difficult.
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