Anandiben image at the centre of Gujarat by-elections
BY RK MISRA
What is so great about predicting a
poll outcome when a landslide follows a ram battering. And yet the forthcoming
by-elections to one Lok Sabha and 9 Vidhan Sabha seats due in Gujarat on
September 13 acquires importance, both in national and state politics.
Gujarat is important today in the national political
format because it is the home turf of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. More so
because Modi clobbered the Congress out of shape in three successive Vidhan
Sabha elections in Gujarat and then broomed it off the national political shelf
to usher in the first BJP majority government in history.
Thus having hit rock bottom, the
Congress has little to lose except it’s modesty in the coming by-elections. Paradoxically,
the ruling BJP has quite a bit that hangs in the balance though it sits pretty
comfortably poised in the ensuing elections.
While the outcome of the by-elections
in Gujarat will not materially alter the situation in any manner, this will be
the first major Vidhan Sabha engagement between the two traditional political
rivals after Anandiben Patel took over as Chief Minister, and hence it’s importance.
While the list of candidates announced
by both sides carries hardly any personality to make one sit up and look, there
yet is a fair amount of speculation on the outcome.
The bulk of the seats fell vacant as
the BJP had fielded 9 sitting legislators including Chief Minister Narendra
Modi for the Lok Sabha elections. All the nine won as the BJP swept all the 26
Lok Sabha seats from Gujarat leaving the Congress totally bankrupt of a representation. Modi who had contested the
Lok Sabha polls, both from Vadodara and Banaras vacated the former seat causing
a Lok Sabha by-elections. Ranjanben Bhatt, the deputy mayor of the Vadodara
municipal corporation shall replace Modi as the BJP candidate for the solitary
Lok Sabha seat. She will face Narendra Ravat, the president of the city
congress. Ravat had initially been selected through the primaries as the party
nominee but was replaced by Madhusudan Mistry, Congress general secretary,
after Modi decided to contest from Vadodara. Modi trounced Mistry by a record
margin of 5,70,000 votes in the 2014 General elections.
Though there are no big names in the
fray from both sides, the Congress has a line up of top names who suffered
humiliating defeats in the 2014 general elections. These included union
ministers Dinsha Patel, Bharat Solanki son of former Chief Minister Madhavsinh
Solanki and Tushar Chaudary son of
former Chief Minister Amarsinh Chaudhary. Though none of the high profile names
have found place, the fact is that most of the key leaders including some of
them have been given overall charge of the poll bound constituencies to ensure
the victory of the party candidates. Thus these contests have become prestige
issues for Congress leader who have just undergone humiliating reverses. A repeat
loss of their command areas is likely to go majorly against them in future
references. The seats due for by-elections are Tankara, Khambhaliya, Mangrol
and Talaja in Saurashtra region. Anand, Matar and Limkheda in central Gujarat,
Deesa in north Gujarat and Modi’s Assembly constituency of Maninagar in
Ahmedabad.The BJP holds 117 seats in the 182 member Gujarat Assembly with the
Congress accounting for 54, Sharad Pawar’s NCP two seats and nine seats vacant.
The fight for the solitary Lok Sabha seat of Vadodara has already been
complicated with NCP making known it’s resolve to contest the seat.
Faced with a series of defeats at the
hands of the BJP under the leadership of Modi in Gujarat over the last decade,
another reverse will not make much of a difference for the Congress though the
latest by-election results streaming in from other parts of the country seems
to have revived a bit of their sagging spirits.
However a decisive victory in the coming
elections in a must for Chief Minister Anandiben Patel who has still to prove
that she is a worthy successor to Modi who had turned winning elections for the
BJP into a habit in Gujarat be it panchayat, municipal corporations, Assembly or
Lok Sabha. Patel who has Modi’s backing is under scrutiny, more inside her own
party than outside and therefore the need for a win in these by-polls to consolidate her hold
though she made a good beginning by wresting the Junagadh municipal corporation
from the Congress for her party in the just concluded elections. Aware of the
stakes, the Chief Minister is leaving nothing to chance and has unleashed
a full scale assault. The entire
ministerial clan is burning midnight oil with the party set up also pitching
in. Modi still remains the main figurehead for the BJP and has been involved in
the final selection of party candidates. For all practical purposes, it is Modi
versus the Congress in these by-elections despite the fact that the ruling
party sits pretty comfortably poised.
Very true sir
ReplyDelete